Tech Talk for Thursday May 1st 2008
Pre-opening Comments for Thursday May 1st
9:10 AM EDT:
Exxon Mobil is weaker in early trading after reporting less than consensus first quarter earnings. Consensus was $2.13 versus $1.62 per share last year. Actual earnings were $2.03. On the charts, XOM is struggling. It recently tested its all time high at $94.50, but failed. The stock recorded a MACD sell signal on Tuesday.
Chart courtesy of
StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Weakness in ExxonMobil likely will spill into other energy stocks at the opening. Additional weakness in the prices of crude oil in overnight markets also will contribute to their weakness. Crude oil also recorded a MACD sell signal on Tuesday. ‘Tis the season for crude oil prices and energy stock prices to peak and move lower.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Eastman Kodak also is expected to open lower following worse than expected first quarter earnings. Consensus was a loss of $0.04 per share. Actual loss was $0.40 per share.
Centex, a
In
Technical Action Yesterday
Technical action by S&P 500 stocks was bullish again yesterday. Twelve S&P 500 stocks broke resistance and three stocks broke support.
S&P 500 stocks
breaking resistance
Stock Symbol Previous New
Trend Trend
Akamai Tech AKAM Down Up
Apollo APOL Down Up
AT&T T Neutral Up
Automatic Data Pro ADP Up Up
Cintas CTAS Down Neutral
Comcast CMCSA Up Up
Embarq EQ Down Neutral
Kraft Foods KFT Down Up
Interpublic IPG Down Up
Johnson Controls JCI Down Up
Waters WAT Down Neutral
S&P 500 stocks breaking support
Stock Symbol Previous New
Trend Trend
Colgate CL Neutral Down
International Paper IP Down Down
Walgreen WAG Up Neutral
Technical action by TSX Composite Index stocks also was bullish. Six TSX stocks broke resistance and two stocks broke support.
TSX stocks breaking resistance
Stock Symbol Previous New
Trend Trend
Commerce Bank CM Down Neutral
Dorel DII.B Down Neutral
National Bank NA Down Neutral
Shoppers
Quebecor QBR.B Down Up
TSX Group X Down Up
TSX stocks breaking support
Stock Symbol Previous New
Trend Trend
Crystallex KRY Neutral Down
Torstar TS.B Up Down
Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday April 30th
(Charts have been updated to yesterday’s close)
9:10 AM EDT:
The U.S. Dollar has
rallied following release of the GDP report.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
In
Cisco Systems is expected to open higher following favourable comments by Morgan Stanley. Cisco has an improving technical profile. The stock is attempting to break above a base building pattern. Morgan Stanley’s comments could be the trigger to complete the pattern.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Not all the news was
positive. February Real GDP in
Tech Talk Comments on the FP
Trading Desk site
(Posted yesterday at http://www.financialpost.com/trading_desk/index.html )
2:45 PM EDT: Initial response to the Federal Reserves decisions on interest rates was surprisingly muted. The Federal Reserve reduced its Fed Fund rate and its Discount rate by 0.25%. Guideline following release of the news implied that the Federal Reserve has changed its policy from accommodative to neutral. Just prior to the Fed’s news at 2:15 PM, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 120 points. At 2:40 PM, the Dow also was up 130 points. Other equity indices such as the S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ Composite Index also were virtually unchanged. Bond prices across the interest rate curve were virtually unchanged. The U.S. Dollar was virtually unchanged. Crude oil was the only commodity that showed a significant move following the Fed’s announcements. Crude oil moved slightly lower.
Update: Blink and you missed! After 2:45 PM, traders decided that the Fed’s announcement was not good enough. They quickly pressured equity markets to below break even levels.
THE
CASTLEMOORE “CLASS” PORTFOLIO
What does CastleMoore think its typical Canadian investors should be
invested in NOW?
Class Investor - Moderate Risk
|
Cash Equivalents: |
|
0.0% |
|
Canadian Equity Index: |
|
63.0% |
|
Non-Canadian Indices: |
|
25.0% |
|
|
18.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% |
|
|
TOTAL |
|
100% |
A capital market is like the
weather: you don’t control it, you don’t influence it, you simply anticipate
the best you can and act accordingly. When it’s good, you can’t get enough of
it and when it’s bad the best course is to stay out of it completely.
With markets, as with
weather, conditions at any point in time this week are very much related to
conditions last weeks, which are equally related to conditions of the week
before. Seasonal tendencies must be incorporated into our daily decisions, as
does the possibility that such tendencies won’t hold at the present.
And most importantly, we
always react to events quickly, decisively, and long before pausing to consider
why they occurred.
We anticipate another month
to six weeks of fair weather, and have hence maintained our fully-invested
stance since having attained that posture about two months ago. The exception
is our sale of our position in the Gold Producers ETF (this was a holding in
our focus portfolios). The conditions in this sector have deteriorated of late,
and there are better alternatives for the capital the sale has generated.
If you like to receive our soon-to-be “hot of the press” bi-monthly newsletter, know more about our model portfolios or access an audio file of our investment philosophy, “Modern Financial Fiascos”, click on the link http://www.formdesk.com/castlemoore/register . We are also accepting interest for seminar attendance as well.
CastleMoore Inc.
Buy, Hold…and Know When to Sell
Disclosure: Mr. Vialoux does not own securities mentioned in this report.
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.